Daftar Isi:1. Prolog how to produce farecast Par I Quantifying Uncertainty 2. Introduction to probability 3. Computational statistics 4. Stochastic processes 5. Bayesian inference Part II Bayesian Data Assimilation 6. Basic data assimilation 7. McKean approach to data assimilation 8. Data assimilation for spatio-temporal processes 9. Dealing with imperfect model